132 - Nailed It or Failed It? Reviewing Our 2025 Macro Forecast

About this episode

This week, we’re reviewing the 2025 macro predictions we made back in December 2024 — and the results are honestly insane.

We identified nine major macro trend themes heading into 2025 (plus a “miscellaneous chaos” category), and in this episode we break down exactly how each played out — the hits, the misses, and the monster trends that shaped the entire year.

🔥 BIG THEMES WE COVER:

1. Nuclear Energy
We predicted a massive boom… and it actually happened. Nuclear went from policy talk to full-scale implementation. Old plants reopened, new ones broke ground, and nuclear ETFs hit triple-digit gains at their peak.

2. Electric Utilities
Another home run. Utility stocks — the “boring ones” — saw year-to-date gains of 18% to nearly 40% thanks to the AI energy arms race.

3. Oil & Gas
Right prediction, weird execution. Policy shifted, but OPEC responded with a full-on oil glut, keeping prices suppressed around $60. Cheap gas kept inflation muted, but energy stocks lagged.

4. Artificial Intelligence
Hardware → application shift? Nailed. AI exploded across every sector, with Nvidia smashing earnings and multiple companies integrating robotics, automation, and new infrastructure.

5. Data Storage & Infrastructure
Growth? Way above expectations. The data center boom is underway, and the best part is — the move hasn’t even peaked yet.

6. REITs (especially mREITs)
We predicted mREITs would outperform equity REITs. Correct. Interest rate timing was messy, but the year still favored mortgage REITs by a wide margin.

7. Healthcare/Biotech
A mixed bag. R&D exploded thanks to AI, but big pharma lagged. 2026 looks promising for targeted healthcare plays.

8. BDCs
Everyone else said they’d boom. We said, “Nope, not this year.” And we were right. But 2026? They look loaded.

9. Finance & Crypto
Crypto broke ATHs early, then cratered as fear took over. Financials split cleanly: big banks crushed it, regionals dragged.

📊 The Results - Spreadsheet Link

We recommended 14 investments last year.
• Equal-weighted return: 18.19% (beats the ~10% market average)
• Without the OGN dividend implosion: 23.16%
• If using sell signals we discussed: ~23–48%

Every single pick was up at some point in 2025.
 Our “big picture” calls were shockingly accurate — even with volatility, tariffs, rate swings, and AI bubble fears stirring chaos all year.

🎯 Bottom Line

If you followed the macro logic — not the news cycle — 2025 was a killer year.

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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

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